2 months ago
17
Favorites
Declared
Maybe
Contenders
Long shots
2024 Presidential Election
By Steven Shepard | March 20, 2023, 4:00 a.m. EDT | Updated March 20, 2023, 9:24 a.m. EDT
The race for the GOP presidential has a set of historic firsts: a former president seeking an Oval Office comeback, a vice president who refused to go along with a plot to steal the last election, the most politically accomplished woman ever to run as a Republican — and an already-popular governor waiting in the wings.
Who ultimately wins out will take on President Joe Biden in a likely reelection bid — and potentially secure the White House.
There are also other candidates and would-be candidates, too. We've put the entire field into three categories — based roughly on their chances to capture the nod — along with full scouting reports for everything that could go right or wrong along the road to the 2024 convention in Milwaukee.
The most likely nominee(s). The Favorites have established major campaign infrastructure — plenty of money, staff in key states, outside groups ready to bombard the airwaves with advertising — built broad coalitions in polling and garnered endorsements from party leaders.
The former president — who has refused to accept his 2020 defeat — is seeking to become only the second man in history to return to the Oval Office after his ouster.
🏆 Winning path
Trump remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that punctuated his turbulent presidency. His false claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election has given his comeback bid a patina of grievance to add to his appeal to return to the policies of his administration. With only a few exceptions, Trump's likely rivals have refrained from criticizing his time in office or behavior outside of it.
❌ Losing path
Trump fatigue. Trump has dominated American politics — in both parties — since he first became a candidate in 2015. Unlike his first campaign, when the field against him was split, Trump could face a single competitor who serves as a counterweight in DeSantis. And potential legal jeopardy on multiple fronts could convince enough GOP primary voters to turn the page and look to the future, even if they like Trump and his record as president.
Since elected as Florida’s governor in 2018, DeSantis has positioned himself as a national figure by championing far-right causes — and successfully turned the nation’s largest swing state a distinct shade of red. He is widely expected to begin his campaign after the state legislative session ends this spring.
🏆 Winning path
DeSantis doesn’t want to be the anti-Trump, but rather a more effective (and less scandalous) continuation of the former president’s political movement. By the numbers, it could be a winning primary coalition to combine Trump fans with loyal Republicans who are skeptical about a third straight Trump nomination. But it requires DeSantis to go at Trump directly — without alienating too many of his supporters — and position himself as a more electable alternative.
❌ Losing path
By selling Trump Lite to an audience that still yearns for the full-calorie version, and at the same time too extreme and unserious for the party’s Trump skeptics. He's considered an awkward retail campaigner. DeSantis’ decision to align with Trump on the Russian invasion of Ukraine suggests he’s unlikely to make any significant breaks from the former president.
In the ballgame, but not top-tier candidates. The Contenders are running credible campaigns, with enough money and staff to be competitive, but haven’t gained as much traction. Still, a Contender has enough support in a key early state or among a segment of the GOP electorate to build upon as the primaries approach — or potentially play king- (or queen-) maker down the road.
Haley combines executive experience, foreign policy chops, a tie to Trump’s administration, home-field-advantage in an early state and a historic candidacy.
🏆 Winning path
As the alternative to a months-long Trump-DeSantis food fight. A win in South Carolina’s primary — third after Iowa and New Hampshire — would go a long way to vaulting Haley into the top tier. Already, Haley is the most politically accomplished woman — as a twice-elected governor and cabinet member — to enter a Republican presidential primary field. Despite the gender gap between the parties, women make up nearly half of the GOP primary electorate.
❌ Losing path
Like all of the candidates below the top tier, Haley risks getting drowned out in a primary where Trump and DeSantis suck up most of the oxygen. And Haley’s seemingly shifting views of Trump after the Jan. 6 riot threaten her credibility in taking on her former boss.
Pence spurned Trump when he honored the results of the 2020 election, and the former vice president appears poised to be Trump’s loudest critic in the 2024 presidential field.
🏆 Winning path
He probably doesn’t. But if he can survive the early caucuses and primaries as the candidate of choice of the GOP’s small but real “never-Trump” bloc, he could be a powerbroker in the heart of primary season to steer his voters toward an alternative.
❌ Losing path
The danger for Pence is being a non-factor in the race. Other candidates will hit Trump, too, though perhaps not with the solemnity of the former vice president. And those in that group — DeSantis, Haley, among others — won’t have Pence’s low ceiling.
The 2016 runner-up is foregoing another campaign, instead choosing to seek a third term in the Senate.
Not a factor — at least not yet. The Long Shots barely register in polling, nationally and in the early states. There’s always the possibility of catching fire, especially in one of the early states, to propel you into the next tier. But there’s an even greater likelihood of an ignominious, early dropout.
Johnson failed to qualify for the ballot in his last campaign — for Michigan governor in 2022 — but the businessman and self-described “quality guru” has already been running cable-TV ads in Iowa.
🏆 Winning path
Actually getting on the ballot would be a good start. Johnson was disqualified in 2022 due to signature fraud — he blamed a vendor — rendering the more than $7 million he loaned his campaign wasted. His early-state advertising could get him on a debate stage, however, if he starts to register in polls.
❌ Losing path
Like other self-funding long shots, there's a limit to how much of their own money someone would spend if they aren't going anywhere.
The investor and former pharmaceutical company CEO has launched an outsider campaign based largely on a critique of “wokeness” among corporations and other institutions.
🏆 Winning path
If his pet issue is vaulted to the fore, especially in primary debates, where it will compete with a more traditional GOP issue set of the economy, crime, foreign policy and immigration. But he also won’t be the only loud voice against “wokeness” if DeSantis is in the race. He’s wealthy and can afford to jump-start his campaign out of his own checkbook.
❌ Losing path
Self-funding candidates often tire of spending millions of dollars if they aren’t catching on among the electorate.
After a lengthy career in public office — as a U.S. attorney, congressman (and Bill Clinton impeachment manager), DEA administrator and two-term Arkansas governor — Hutchinson says he’s mulling an underdog presidential bid.
🏆 Winning path
Hutchinson has expressed misgivings about the GOP’s direction during the Trump era, but selling a return to the conservativism of the 1990s and 2000s is an uphill climb.
❌ Losing path
He could end up like two of Trump’s 2016 rivals — former New York Gov. George Pataki or another former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee — who barely register after their political moments have already passed them by.
Since her election as South Dakota governor in 2018, Noem has yearned to be a national figure. A Fox News mainstay, her state’s tourism board spent nearly $1 million in 2020 on the channel during that year’s Republican convention for ads that featured Noem touting South Dakota direct-to-camera.
🏆 Winning path
If there’s room in the Trump/MAGA lane for a third (and female) candidate. Also, unlike Haley, Noem has stayed in Trump’s good graces and is often mentioned as a possible replacement for Pence on the general-election ticket if Trump wins.
❌ Losing path
DeSantis was first elected the same year and has executed his version of conservative governance on a much larger scale. South Dakota is no Florida.
Trump’s former CIA director and secretary of state was a survivor, remaining in the administration for the duration of a presidency where stability was rare. Since then, he’s emerged as a leading voice against President Joe Biden’s foreign policy.
🏆 Winning path
Through ferocity and hawkishness. If he runs, the West Point and Harvard alum would be the loudest voice on a debate stage. Reestablishing his relationship with the Koch network — Pompeo once represented Wichita, Kan., in the House — would help, too, in the form of a deep-pocketed outside group.
❌ Losing path
If he’s outflanked by his competitors. Like Pompeo, DeSantis is a military veteran. Haley also has foreign policy cred. Pence and Tim Scott are also vying for Koch backing.
The South Carolina senator hasn’t jumped into the race yet, but he’s a favorite of the party’s donor class and hails from an early-primary state.
🏆 Winning path
By selling primary voters on a sunnier vision for the country than Trump’s “retribution” tour or DeSantis’ war on liberalism. Scott won’t have to worry about money — he’s one of the Senate GOP’s strongest fundraisers and has connections to well-heeled conservatives like Oracle’s Larry Ellison and the Koch network. And showing strength in South Carolina could vault him into contention elsewhere.
❌ Losing path
If Republican voters are more attracted to the bellicose rhetoric from the current frontrunners. And if both Scott and Haley are still on the ballot in South Carolina, it could dilute their favorite-son and -daughter candidacies.
The popular governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire has made the rounds in the national media, dismissing Trump as the GOP’s leader.
🏆 Winning path
By becoming the main figure of the party’s moderate lane, amid a pileup on his right. He's won four gubneratorial elections, including two on the ballot the same time Trump lost the battleground state. And a victory in the New Hampshire primary would be a prerequisite, too.
❌ Losing path
If he’s too moderate (and anti-Trump) for today’s GOP primary voters. And if his “favorite son” status in New Hampshire diminishes the state’s weight — as then-Sen. Tom Harkin’s candidacy did in 1992, when the Iowan won his home state but struggled in major contests elsewhere.
Abbott was just elected to a third term as Texas governor and has been one of Republicans’ top fundraisers anywhere in the country.
The former New Jersey governor and one-time Trump confidant has said he’s considering running again.
Since being hailed as the potential future of the GOP eight years ago, Rubio has been eclipsed by a fellow Floridian in DeSantis.
The term-limited Virginia governor is sometimes floated as an electable conservative candidate.
The Arkansas senator said in November 2022 he wouldn’t run for president.
The former Maryland governor — one of Trump’s top GOP critics — chose not to enter the race.
After an eventful four years in the Senate — including a fruitless cycle as NRSC chairman and an unsuccessful effort to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — Scott chose a bid for a second term over a presidential campaign.
